Manvel Market Update — June 2026

The Headline Numbers

Every six months I pull the full HAR MLS picture for the markets I work — not just the solds, but the actives, the pendings, and the listings that failed. Manvel is the one market on my list that reads differently from all the others, and you have to understand why before any of the numbers make sense: this is a heavy new-construction market. Here's where it stands as of June 10, 2026, based on the six months starting December 12, 2025.

Manvel closed 406 sales at a median price of $479,364 — call it about $479K — and a median of $175.04 per square foot. Closed prices ran from $132,900 up to $1,275,000. But the median time to contract was a long 67 days on market, and the market is carrying 5.7 months of supply — both far higher than the established inner-Bay-Area markets I track. That is not a sign of a weak market. It's a sign of a builder-driven one.

Here's the tell: of the listings in my count, 739 were new construction, and builder inventory behaves differently. Spec homes get listed months before they're finished, model-home transactions run on their own clock, and a new community can carry a deep bench of standing inventory. That's why homes (and builder lots) sit longer here than in a mature neighborhood where every listing is a resale. Even so, the homes that closed did so near ask — 98% of final list price, though only 92% of original list, which tells you the price cuts and incentives along the way are real. The honest summary: Manvel is a market with negotiating room and one that rewards patience, not a distressed one.

On supply, there are 387 active listings right now with 154 more under contract. Month to month, volume was steady through the window: 69 closings in December (caught only from the 12th onward) at a $521,449 median, 41 in January... actually 48 in January at $499,500 and 41 in February at $477,345, then the spring ramp — 77 closings in March at $455,000, 74 in April at $467,000, and the peak of 83 closings in May at $468,818. The first ten days of June logged 14 closings at $507,500. Don't over-read the month-to-month medians; in a builder market, which communities and which floor plans close in a given month swings the median more than any underlying price move. The reliable read is the volume, and the volume held up across the window.

Pomona

Pomona — the Hillwood master-planned community known for its resort-style pools and amenity center on the Manvel/Iowa Colony edge — closed 69 sales at a $495,000 median, ranging from $318,000 to $1,205,000, at $182.11 per square foot, the highest price-per-foot of any Manvel neighborhood in this report. As you'd expect for an active master-plan, it's a builder story: 140 of its listings were new construction, and homes took a relatively quick (for Manvel) 37 days to go under contract while closing at 96.4% of list.

The pressure point is supply. With 76 active listings, Pomona sits at 6.6 months of supply and a 51.4% fail rate — more than half of its listings came off the market without selling. That's the math of a community where buyers can choose among dozens of standing homes and builder specs at once. For buyers, it means leverage and selection; for resale sellers, it means you're competing head-to-head with the builder's incentive package, and the median active ask of $537,450 sits above the recent closed median for a reason.

Rodeo Palms

Rodeo Palms is the affordable, established counterpoint to the rest of Manvel: a $321,000 median across 23 sales (range $170,000 to $490,000), well below the city's $479K. Unlike its master-planned neighbors, this is a resale market — zero new-construction sales in the window — and it shows in the price point. Homes here closed at a strong 98.2% of final list, the best close-to-list ratio of any Manvel neighborhood I track, so priced-right homes are still finding buyers near ask.

The caution is the fail rate: 65.7% — the highest in this report — with 44 listings failing against 23 sales. On a $321K median with that much demand at the entry price point, a fail rate that high points squarely at pricing, not desirability. At 6.3 months of supply with the median active asking $379,950 (well above the closed median), the message to sellers is blunt: Rodeo Palms is the most accessible way into Manvel, but the buyers here are price-sensitive and the listings that overreach expire.

Del Bello Lakes

One caveat first: Del Bello Lakes closed only 10 sales in six months, so treat every number here as directional. That said, it posted the highest median in this report — $597,495, call it $597.5K (range $412,900 to $654,990) — and closed at a remarkable 99% of final list. This is a newer master-planned community, and 12 of its listings were new construction.

The number that captures Manvel's new-construction character better than any other in this article is Del Bello Lakes' 180-day median time to contract — six months. That's builder inventory listed long before completion, sitting on the MLS while it's framed and finished. Paired with 13 active listings and 7.8 months of supply — the heaviest in this report — and a 50% fail rate, the takeaway for buyers is that you have enormous leverage and time here; nothing is moving fast. For sellers, the 99% close-to-list says the homes that do sell hold their price, but you should plan for a long runway.

Meridiana

Meridiana was the volume leader of the entire Manvel market — 136 closed sales, more than any other neighborhood in this report — at a $505,000 median (range $307,500 to $940,000). This is the big, amenity-rich master-planned community known for its Adventure Cove amenity village and its signature lazy river, and it is overwhelmingly a new-construction engine: 343 of its listings were new builds, the most of any neighborhood here.

That builder profile explains the 100.5-day median time to contract and the 137 active listings (6 months of supply) — this is a community continuously bringing inventory to market. The encouraging number is the fail rate: at 34.3%, Meridiana's is the second-lowest in this report, and well below the city's 44.7%. For a community with this much standing inventory, that says the pricing here is largely realistic and the absorption is healthy. Buyers get deep selection and negotiating room; sellers face real competition but a market that's clearing.

Sedona Lakes

Another small sample to read carefully: Sedona Lakes closed just 11 sales in six months, so hold the numbers loosely. The median landed at $499,900 — essentially $500K — with a wide range ($385,000 to $795,000), and it stands apart from its master-planned neighbors as an established, resale-driven community with zero new-construction sales in the window. That established profile shows in the velocity: 24 days median time to contract, the fastest in this report, at 97.9% of list.

The contradiction worth flagging: Sedona Lakes carries the tightest supply in this report — 2.7 months, just 5 active listings — yet posted a 59.3% fail rate (16 failed against 11 sold). On numbers this small, I wouldn't over-interpret the fail rate, but the combination suggests a thin, choppy market where the right home sells fast and the mispriced ones expire, with not enough volume for either side to lean hard on comps.

Valencia

Valencia is the most interesting story in Manvel this cycle. It's a brand-new Hillwood community — 183 of its listings were new construction, with 78 closings at a $512,500 median (range $365,000 to $1,206,750) — and yet it posted the lowest fail rate in this entire report: 18.8%. Only 18 listings failed against 78 sales. For a brand-new community where you'd expect builder inventory to pile up and expire, that's a standout absorption number — the builders here are pricing and moving product cleanly.

The new-construction signature still shows in the time numbers: a 113.5-day median time to contract (homes listed well ahead of completion) and only 86% of original list price at close, the lowest original-price retention in this report — meaning the incentives and price adjustments along the way are real even as final close-to-list holds at 97%. With 59 active listings at 4.5 months of supply and a median active ask of $612,355, buyers have selection and negotiating room, but the low fail rate tells you this community is clearing inventory better than anywhere else in Manvel.

What This Means for Buyers

Manvel is the most buyer-friendly of the markets I work right now, and the data says so plainly: 5.7 months of supply, a 67-day median time to contract, and 387 active listings to choose from. You have leverage and you have time — a rare combination. That's especially true against builder inventory, where the negotiating happens on incentives (closing costs, rate buydowns, design-center credits) as much as on sticker price. In communities like Del Bello Lakes (7.8 months) and Pomona (6.6 months), there is no reason to rush.

The flip side of leverage is discipline, not paralysis. Homes that are priced correctly still close at 98% of final list citywide, and the fastest-moving spots — Sedona Lakes at 24 days, Rodeo Palms closing at 98.2% of list — prove that genuinely good homes at the right number don't linger. Use the supply to negotiate, but recognize a sharp listing when you see one. All six of these neighborhoods are Alvin ISD, zoned to Manvel High School — but school assignments are address-specific, so confirm the exact campus for any address before you write.

What This Means for Sellers

If you're selling a resale home in Manvel, you are competing against builders — and the data is unambiguous about what that requires. 44.7% of listings failed to sell over the last six months, nearly half, and the gap between the median active ask ($520,000) and the median close ($479,364) tells you why: too many listings are priced off where the seller wishes the market were, not where it is. With a 67-day median time to contract and 5.7 months of supply, this market has no patience for an ambitious number.

The good news is that correctly priced homes still get paid: citywide close-to-list held at 98%, and neighborhoods like Del Bello Lakes (99%) and Rodeo Palms (98.2%) show that the right price gets you nearly your whole ask. The job is to price to today's comps including the builders' real incentive packages, and to plan for a longer runway than the inner markets demand. If you'd like to see exactly where your home lands against current Manvel comps, start with a TruMarket™ home value report or reach out directly — I'll walk you through the numbers.

Based on HAR MLS data, Dec 12, 2025 – Jun 10, 2026. Statistics computed from closed, active, pending, and failed (terminated/expired/withdrawn) listings. Failure rate = failed listings ÷ (failed + sold). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.