The Clear Lake Market in One Paragraph
Over the roughly six months ending June 10, 2026, 302 homes closed in the Clear Lake area at a median of $359,950 and a median of $156.43 per square foot. The median home that sold went under contract in 22.5 days and closed at 98.6% of its final list price — the best close-to-list ratio of the four markets I track — and 97.4% of its original list price. Right now there are 151 active listings and 72 pendings, which works out to 3.0 months of supply — the tightest inventory of my four markets. Closed prices ranged from $179,131 to $1,399,000, and every one of those 302 sales was a resale: zero new-construction closings in this data. This is an established, supply-constrained resale market, and it behaves like one.
The monthly rhythm followed the usual spring pattern, with a few wrinkles. December 2025 closed 34 sales at a $374,250 median, January dipped to a $339,500 median on 40 sales, then the spring engine kicked in: 35 closings in February ($360,000 median), 62 in March ($376,500 — the strongest month for both volume and price), 48 in April ($347,450), and 67 in May — the busiest month of the period — at $350,000. June is only ten days old and has already logged 16 closings at a $370,000 median. Volume is healthy; the median bounces month to month because the mix of what sells shifts, not because the market is swinging.
One more gap worth flagging: today's 151 actives are asking a median of $394,900 — about $35K above the $359,950 that homes actually sold for. Some of that is mix (bigger, pricier homes take longer to sell), but some of it is wishful pricing, and the 34.3% fail rate is where wishful pricing goes to be counted.
Below, the six neighborhoods I track in this area, one by one. All six are zoned to Clear Creek ISD feeding Clear Lake High School — as always, campus assignments are address-specific, so confirm the assignment for any specific address before purchasing. One housekeeping note: Taylor Lake Village is a separate municipality, so its numbers come from its own MLS export and are not included in the citywide figures above.
Bay Oaks — The Luxury Anchor
Bay Oaks is the most expensive of the six, and the numbers back up the reputation: 15 closings at a $651,500 median, ranging from $473,550 up to $1,373,000, at $186.92 per square foot. Despite the price point, the median sale moved in just 22 days — essentially the citywide pace — and sellers collected 97.7% of final list price (96.6% of original). The two June closings posted a $1,049,000 median, which tells you the top end of this neighborhood is transacting, not just listing.
The watch-items: 11 actives at a $730,000 median asking price (topping out at $1,750,000) put supply at 4.4 months — looser than the citywide 3.0 — and the fail rate was 34.8%, right at the citywide average. Eight listings failed against 15 that sold. Translation: Bay Oaks buyers show up for correctly priced homes at every tier, but this is not a neighborhood where you can name a number and wait. Full profile: Bay Oaks.
Bay Forest — The Strongest Numbers Anywhere
Bay Forest is the standout of this entire update — and honestly, of every market I track. The fail rate here was 13%, the lowest I measured anywhere this period. Only 3 listings failed while 20 closed, at a $412,500 median (range $275,000 to $1,000,000), $166.53 per square foot, in a median of 23 days, at 98.8% of final list and 98.1% of original list. Sellers here barely negotiated.
And there's almost nothing left to buy: just 3 active listings at a $489,000 median ask, which is 0.9 months of supply. March alone closed 8 sales — nearly half the period's volume in one month. If you're a Bay Forest owner who's been waiting for a strong moment to sell, the data says this is it. If you're a buyer, get your financing fully ready before the right house hits, because it won't wait for you. Full profile: Bay Forest.
Bay Knoll — Fastest in the Update
Nobody sold faster than Bay Knoll: a 10-day median DOM, the quickest of any neighborhood in this update. The 13 closings landed at a $400,000 median in a tight band — every sale fell between $313,776 and $450,000 — at $156.50 per square foot, almost exactly the citywide figure. Sellers got 98.8% of both final and original list price, meaning the homes that sold were priced right the first time and never had to cut.
Interesting wrinkle: the 5 current actives are asking a median of $385,000 — below the $400,000 sold median, which is the opposite of the citywide pattern and suggests today's sellers here are pricing realistically. Supply sits at a tight 2.3 months. The caution flag is the 35% fail rate (7 failed vs. 13 sold) — even in a 10-day market, an overpriced Bay Knoll listing still dies on the vine. The recent trend favors sellers: December closings ran a $360,000 median, May's ran $429,950, and June's single closing hit $434,900. Full profile: Bay Knoll.
Brookwood — Steady and Reliable
Brookwood put up the kind of numbers that don't make headlines but make sellers money: 18 closings at a $454,000 median, in a disciplined range of $339,000 to $560,000, at $148.23 per square foot — the most affordable per-foot entry into this group of six. The median sale took 27.5 days, a bit slower than the citywide 22.5, but sellers held 98.4% of final list and 97.9% of original list when they closed.
The fail rate of 21.7% (5 failed vs. 18 sold) was the second-best in this update, well under the citywide 34.3%. Ten actives at a $497,000 median ask put supply at 3.3 months. Volume was remarkably even, with closings every single month of the period — this is a consistent, dependable market rather than a feast-or-famine one. For buyers who want Clear Lake High School zoning with the lowest price per square foot in this group, Brookwood is the value play. Full profile: Brookwood.
The Reserve at Clear Lake — Thin Data, High Dollar
First, the honest caveat: only 5 homes closed in The Reserve during this period, so treat every number here as a small sample, not a trend. With that said — the 5 sales landed at a $640,000 median (range $524,000 to $710,000) and $195.50 per square foot, the highest PPSF in this update. The median sale took 44 days, the longest of the six neighborhoods, and closed at 97.8% of final list but 95% of original list — the widest original-to-close gap in the group, meaning Reserve sellers tended to start high and adjust.
The 4 current actives are asking an $849,500 median, stretching to $1,300,000 — well above where the recent closings landed — and supply sits at 4.8 months, the loosest in this update. The fail rate was 37.5% (3 failed vs. 5 sold), though again, three listings is hardly a verdict. In a community this small, one or two sales swing every statistic, which is exactly why pricing here needs a custom comp analysis rather than a neighborhood average. Full profile: The Reserve at Clear Lake.
Taylor Lake Village — Tight Supply, Two Markets in One
Taylor Lake Village runs on its own export because it's its own municipality, and the small-sample caveat applies here too: 7 closings in six months. Those 7 landed at a $360,000 median across a wide range — $315,000 to $680,000 — at $157.08 per square foot, in a median of 25 days, with sellers collecting 98.5% of final list price. The spread tells the real story: this is two markets in one. The established 1960s sections (Timber Cove, Clear Lake Forest) traded in the $315K–$440K band, while the newer lakefront product around Taylor Lake Place closed at $590,000 and $680,000.
Inventory is genuinely scarce: just 2 active listings — both newer lakefront builds asking $680,000 and $750,000 — which works out to 1.7 months of supply, among the tightest in this update. The flag is the fail rate: 5 listings terminated, expired, or withdrew against 7 that sold (41.7%), and several of the failures were higher-priced waterfront asks, including one that asked $1,235,000 and expired. The lesson matches the citywide one — waterfront ambition still needs comp-supported pricing. Full profile: Taylor Lake.
What This Means If You're Buying
- Be ready to move fast on the good ones. The citywide median is 22.5 days, Bay Knoll's is 10, and Bay Forest has 0.9 months of inventory. Correctly priced homes in this market do not linger.
- Don't expect deep discounts on fresh listings. Sellers who closed got a median 98.6% of list — the strongest ratio of my four markets. Lowball offers on well-priced homes mostly just lose.
- Hunt the fail pile. With 158 listings terminated, expired, or withdrawn this period, there's a real pool of motivated sellers whose homes didn't sell — often because of price. Relistings and aging actives (today's actives ask a median $394,900 vs. the $359,950 sold median) are where negotiating room actually lives.
- It's all resale. Zero of the 302 closings were new construction, so you're comparing established homes — inspection quality and updates matter more here than in the new-build corridors.
What This Means If You're Selling
- The leverage is real — if the price is. 3.0 months of supply is the tightest of my four markets, and homes that priced correctly closed at 98.6% of list in about three weeks.
- The 1-in-3 fail rate is the warning label. 34.3% of Clear Lake listings ended without a sale this period. Tight supply punished overpricing anyway. The sellers who won priced near the market on day one — citywide, closings averaged 97.4% of the original asking price, so big cuts were rarely part of the winning playbook.
- Bay Forest sellers: your window is open. A 13% fail rate, 0.9 months of supply, and 98.8% close-to-list is about as strong a setup as I ever get to report.
- Small-sample neighborhoods need custom pricing. The Reserve closed 5 homes in six months. At that volume, your list price should come from a hand-built comp analysis, not a Zestimate.
Thinking about a move? Tell me about your situation at contact.html — selling, or get a data-driven value on your home with TruMarket™.
Based on HAR MLS data, Dec 12, 2025 – Jun 10, 2026. Statistics computed from closed, active, pending, and failed (terminated/expired/withdrawn) listings. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.